♟ Lichess Elo Calculator
Estimate Lichess Glicko-style rating movement from rating, rating deviation, provisional uncertainty, opponent strength, result, game type, expected score, and pool percentile band.
| Result | Score | If expected | Rating pressure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 1.0 | 0.25 | Large gain |
| Win | 1.0 | 0.75 | Small gain |
| Draw | 0.5 | 0.20 | Gain |
| Draw | 0.5 | 0.80 | Loss |
| Loss | 0.0 | 0.25 | Small loss |
| Loss | 0.0 | 0.75 | Large loss |
Expected score is the probability-like midpoint used to judge whether the result overperformed or underperformed the rating gap.
| RD | Visible feel | Change size | Typical state |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-60 | Locked in | Small | Very active |
| 61-100 | Stable | Normal | Regular player |
| 101-180 | Loose | Raised | Mixed activity |
| 181-300 | Uncertain | Large | Question mark |
| 301-500 | Provisional | Very large | New pool |
Lichess displays a question mark when uncertainty is high enough that the rating should be read as provisional.
| Pool | Median lean | Volatility | Calculator note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultrabullet | Lower | Very high | Fast streaks |
| Bullet | Medium | High | Mouse skill matters |
| Blitz | Medium | Medium | Big player pool |
| Rapid | Medium-high | Medium | Cleaner signal |
| Classical | Higher | Low sample | Wide RD common |
| Variants | Variable | High | Pool-specific |
Percentile estimates are pool-relative because a rating number does not mean exactly the same thing across every Lichess category.
| Percentile | Band | Rating feel | Practical read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-25 | Learning | Below pool mid | Rating can climb fast |
| 26-50 | Developing | Near median | Openings decide less |
| 51-75 | Solid | Above median | Blunders shrink |
| 76-90 | Strong | Club strength | Endgames matter |
| 91-97 | Advanced | High pool | Prep matters |
| 98-100 | Elite | Top pool | Small edges count |
Use the band as a readable summary, not a leaderboard claim. Lichess pool distributions change over time.
But now you know it’s not about result. The rating change is based off so much more, including how much the system trusts those starting numbers in the first place. If your rating is solid and has little deviation, your next move won’t change much after an outcome. This is different than a case where there is a lot of deviation or uncertainty. That’s what makes the system feel neither arbitrary nor unfair.
Those three things… The two ratings, the two deviations and the result. Are the most critical inputs to this calculator. The rest of it is sort of practical adjustment that real world conditions require.
How Ratings Change Work
When you have a new account with an unrated player, there’s more volatility in rating. Recent games (either won or lost) gives the estimate a little nudge because their rating reflects a recent change in strength. Pools with time control affect the size of the swing due to the noisiness of data generated. None of this overrides the actual math, but it keeps the estimate from thinking all games are created equal.
This shows something surprising. It tells you in advance what the rating gap would predict (though not result), and then it adjust based on how well you did compared with that prediction. If you beat that predicted score, your rating will rise; if you fall short, your rating will drop. However, as always, how much it does is based on the rating gap and the rating deviation.
If they’re very uncertain, and you defeat someone who’s much higher rated, perhaps improvement won’t be very big. The calculator repeat that calculation for you, to show whether result was normal or unusual, given the amount by which the ratings differ. Here are reference tables on the meaning of deviations.
Low deviation ratings tend to change slowly and feel locked in. Deviations at high end have the potential to shift drasticly but feel temporary. That range isn’t a bug: it’s the system saying “I don’t have sufficient good games to confidently say where this will go.” If you treats a high-deviation result like a fixed point, you’re misunderstanding what it says about how it’ll move next.
You can also look at percentile bands, another view into the same number. If two players is each rated 1700, one could be high in the rapid pool and the other toward the bottom of the blitz pool. Your rating tells you what percentile it’s in compared to all the player actively playing in that time control. Remember that exact same number means something different across the site.
Before looking at the projected change, check out expected score. Unless it’s right on expectation (i.e., if you were expecting 1000 then got a 999 or 1011), the rating movement will typically be small, independent of win/loss. The closer it is to expectation, the smaller that change will be. In case of an outcome far from expectation, the subsequent games will carries extra weight in bringing the rating back towards its new value.
You can do this manually by looking at your profile or you can use the calculator to compare it quickly. If you continue to play regularly enough, the rating deviation will stabilize. Once stabilized, this turns an unpredictable number into one you could of planned around. Yes, your rating will continue to fluctuate in small steps (or sometimes even in big steps), but those fluctuations becomes smaller and more predictable. And that’s what makes tracking both the rating and its accompanying uncertainty so valuable.
