🔮 Vex Mythoclast Drop Rate Calculator
Estimate Vault of Glass Atheon clears, weekly eligible characters, featured-raid farming pace, boost assumptions, bad luck protection, target probability, expected runs, and expected weeks.
| Preset | Base rate | Weekly attempts | Planning use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh 1 Character | 5% | 1 | Low-time weekly clear |
| Fresh 3 Characters | 5% | 3 | Standard weekly chase |
| 10 Dry Clears | 5% | 3 | Dry-streak check |
| Featured 15 Farms | 5% | 18 | Rotator-week burst |
| Conservative Model | 3% | 3 | Low-rate stress test |
| BLP Test Model | 5% | 3 | Assumed protection |
Vex Mythoclast is modeled as an Atheon eligible-clear drop. Because exact live drop rules can be opaque, every rate and protection value is editable.
| Eligible clears | Chance by then | Still dry | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 14.3% | 85.7% | One week, three chars |
| 10 | 40.1% | 59.9% | Common dry range |
| 20 | 64.2% | 35.8% | Likely, not safe |
| 30 | 78.5% | 21.5% | Strong chase |
| 45 | 90.1% | 9.9% | High confidence |
This table uses a constant 5% chance per eligible clear: cumulative odds are 1 minus the chance of missing every run.
| Plan | Attempts | At 5% | Weeks to 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| One character | 1/wk | 5.0% weekly | 45 weeks |
| Two characters | 2/wk | 9.8% weekly | 23 weeks |
| Three characters | 3/wk | 14.3% weekly | 15 weeks |
| Featured +10 | 13/wk | 48.7% weekly | 4 weeks |
| Featured +25 | 28/wk | 76.2% weekly | 2 weeks |
Featured-week rows are planning examples. Use the extra farm attempts input to match the number of Atheon clears you actually expect to complete.
| Model | How chance moves | Good for | Caution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off | Fixed rate | Conservative math | Can feel harsh |
| Per miss | Every failed run | Testing rumors | Can be too generous |
| Per week | Once each reset | Account-style model | Approximation |
| Boost field | Adds flat percent | Triumph assumptions | Not automatic |
| Cap field | Limits max rate | Stress testing | User-defined |
The calculator labels protection as an assumption because raid exotic drop systems are often not fully documented for every legacy raid and season state.
| Dry clears | At 5% still dry | Feel | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 77.4% | Very normal | Keep routine |
| 15 | 46.3% | Annoying | Use 3 chars |
| 30 | 21.5% | Unlucky | Plan target odds |
| 45 | 9.9% | Rare dry | Featured push |
| 60 | 4.6% | Brutal | Check assumptions |
A low still-dry number does not mean the next clear is guaranteed. It only shows how unusual that streak would be under the entered chance model.
Raiding in Destiny 2 require a certain type of patience. It’s the kind of patience that isn’t related at all to mechanics; it’s the kind of patience related to probability. Your execution is flawless, your fireteam is tight, you’re standing in the Void facing down Atheon. But the screen is still empty. Luck doesn’t care how good you are at shooting the Vex Mythoclast. That’s what understanding this difference will get you, the gun, but also your sanity.
After plugging in how fast you’re going and what’s on your roster, calculator does the math for you (up above). You won’t have to guess whether your current dry spell is typical or if you’re just having some bad luck. For most people, default drop rate of 5% makes sense; that matches what people in the community have been seeing. It sounds like a low rate after the tenth attempt at beating boss, but it sets the bar for all calculations. If you think there are rumors about increased drops, or you prefer conservative estimates, you can adjust that rate yourself. And then you get to dictate the variables different than leaving them up to chance.
Why Farming Needs Patience
The inputs is the important part: How do you define an eligible attempt? Most players will tell you it’s each and every time they step foot inside raid. In truth, the math are only counting last boss encounter. If you have three characters each week then you’re tripling your chance pool relative to someone who has just one main. That reduces the wait from months down to weeks. The cumulative probability table illustrates how this change based off volume.
Ultimately, consistency beat intensity over time. It doesn’t matter if you clear raid fifty times during a single week. All that matters is that you show up. Another factor of featured raid weeks are that they allow unlimited tries. That’s when burnout creeps into things. While the calculator have some fields to account for additional farm attempts, you’ll start seeing the tradeoff between time spent and odds. Clearing Atheon twelve times in an hour sounds like it will be fast, but it also eats up your stamina at a greater rate then evenly spread out clears across three weeks. For most people, occasionally pushing a featured week while still doing weekly lockouts hit the sweet spot between sanity and progress.
Randomness clusters. You’re going to have dry streaks. It’s our nature. Humans tend to perceive patterns where there aren’t any. When we don’t get that drop whenever we want it, we end up getting frustrated. The tool models bad luck protection as an option, not a guarantee. By doing so, it maintains realistic expectations. You could take all of these protective measures and still miss several drops in a row. Understanding this changeability help avoid tilt while chasing. That’s just how probability does its thing.
Another key factor often missed is time per clear. Does it take you 12 minutes or 20? Multiply that times dozens and there’s a big difference between a twelve minute run and a twenty-minute struggle. The calculator accounts for your expected time commitment and will help you determine whether grinding it out is doable with your schedule. While some players want to maximize volume and move quickly, other players prefers slow runs that don’t feel as much like work. It’s all just a matter of what feels best for you.
Farming the Vex Mythoclast is less about finding the right combination than it is a test of patience and perseverence. It’s a mathematical map that requires you to walk the trail. Knowing your chances and adjusting your expectations takes the anxiety out of it. Keep going there and eventually the weapon will arrive. No matter what numbers pop on the screen, that’s always true.
