🎲 Magic the Gathering Probability Calculator
Plan opening hands, land drops, and combo draws with exact draw math and practical mulligan estimates.
Choose a preset to load a deck pattern, then tune the odds for your exact list.
| Shell | Deck | Key count | Turn goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aggro | 60 | 12 to 16 | T2 to T3 |
| Midrange | 60 | 6 to 10 | T3 to T5 |
| Combo | 60 | 4 to 8 | T4 to T6 |
| Commander | 99 | 1 to 4 | T4 to T8 |
These shells give you a deck-building baseline before you start tuning the live inputs.
| Seen cards | 1-of hit | 4-of hit | 2-piece hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 11.7% | 39.9% | 14.5% |
| 10 | 16.7% | 52.8% | 26.5% |
| 12 | 20.0% | 60.1% | 34.9% |
| 15 | 25.0% | 69.4% | 47.3% |
The live calculator uses the same hypergeometric model behind these benchmark rows.
| Line | Keep? | Why | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 lands + curve | Usually keep | Can cast spells on time | Flood later |
| Combo piece + tutor | Usually keep | Search backs it up | Mana bottleneck |
| No land hand | Ship it | Too much variance | Dead draw risk |
| All gas, no lands | Only on aggro | Fast clocks can race | Missed land drops |
Mulligan judgment depends on the exact plan. Aggro, combo, and control all keep different hands.
Magic is a card game that plays with probabilities for getting a certain card or less wanted. For instance you maybe want to know what chance exists to receive Lightning Bolt in the first hand from a cover with sixty cards and four copies of it. You can simply substitute it by means of another card if it does not please.
Count probabilities for particular cards from the cover is entirely usual cause.
How to Find the Chance of Drawing a Card in Magic
Hypergeometric distribution almost always answers for Magic when deal about probabilities of cards from the library. Free available hypergeometric and multivariate calculators that exactly estimates the chance of any card. They well operate for Magic: The Gathering, Yu-Gi-Oh!, Pokemon TCG, Marvel Snap, Hearthstone and alike games.
MTG hypergeometric calculator helps to find probabilities for cards from cover. It fits also computi the chance receive a certain amount of cards.
Math matters a lot in Magic: The Gathering. You uses probability, statistics, game theory and chance in the game. It deals about deck construction, casual draws and the difference between chance and prowess.
Math helps to analyse various deck strategies and compare winning indications. For instance you can ask how many lands probably exit from transfer of X cards with a particular number of lands in the cover. In Commander with a 99 card cover of 37 lands, hypergeometric calculator points 29.12% probability for exactly 3 lands in a 7 card draw.
Count the probability for perfect initial hand is other sample. With sixty card cover you can search the chance receive five separate cards. Even probability for identical 15 cards from 100 card cover is trovebla.
That could concern probabilities in four games. Although covers mingle and draws are casual prowess stays necessary. It helps to know the present setting.
In the game damago of screw against flood can differ. In Limited good draw simply escape screw but flood gives diluted hand that requires lot of time for compensate. Probability aids players understand such facets.